Fidel Cas-trip

Funny. Funnier on video (harder to find, though).

Floridizow

Up until now, I've always just assumed that Bush would win Florida. It just seems more Red state than Blue, and it never hurts to have a well connected relative running the state to pull some strings if need be. But this is encouraging news. Not only is Kerry better organized than the woefully prepared Gore team, but there's been a 20% surge in new registrations in the heavily Democratic Broward Country (67-31% Gore in 2000). Plus, for you Jews out there, apparently Kerry has a "flawless" pro-Israel voting record.

Also, just from a conceptual level, doesn't it seem more likely that those people who voted for Gore or Nader last time will vote for Kerry at a higher loyalty rate than those who voted for Bush? Or is that just my blatant partisanship shining through again? Can we get someone to do a poll on this? Get Langer on the case, Alibi4Chalabi.

Bottom Line: We're Smarter

So we all know conservatives and liberals live in a very different world today. But this survey reinforces the point in a jarring way. Key findings:

• Al Qaeda/Iraq connection: 55% of Bush supporters believe Iraq gave substantial support to Al Qaeda, but was not involved in 9/11; 20% believe Iraq was directly involved in 9/11. (Kerry supporters are 22% and 8% for both statements, respectively)
• Bush's character: 80% of Bush supporters believe the president is "honest and frank" (vs. 4% of Kerry supporters)
• The economy: 80% of Bush supporters believe the economy has gotten better or is about the same than a year ago (vs. 29% of Kerry supporters)
• International support for the war: 31% of Bush supporters feel that the world was opposed to the US invasion of Iraq (vs. 75% of Kerry supporters)

Full findings here.

TNR Endorsement

Check out The New Republic's endorsement of Kerry here.

Money quote:

"You cannot lead the world without listening to it. You cannot make the Middle East more democratic while making it more anti-American. You cannot make the United States more secure while using security as a partisan weapon. And you cannot demand accountable government abroad while undermining it at home.
And so a president who promised to make America safer by making the Muslim world more free has failed on both counts. This magazine has had its differences with John Kerry during his career and during this campaign. But he would be a far better president than George W. Bush."

My favorite douchebag

Your and my favorite douchebag, Robert Novak, comes out of the box strong, asserting that Kerry is 'losing points' with the all-important Catholic vote.

Except, of course, he's wrong:

"Since the beginning of October, Kerry has achieved notable gains among two key groups of voters ­ women and white Catholics....And white Catholic voters, who have consistently favored Bush over the past month, now lean toward Kerry by 50%-43% (see table, pg. 12)."

I'm confused. Should I believe a fiercely partisan political observer who spoke with two people to support his angle, or do I trust an independent polling organization that surveyed over 1,000 people?

Our fault? Never!

What's with Republicans never taking responsibility for their actions? Why do they chirp on and on about "personal responsibility," yet duck and run when it comes time to take it for themselves? Are they just projecting? Are they aware of their hypocrisy? Anyway, this John Derbyshire assclown made another laughable comment asserting that the primary reason for America's image around the globe is not the actions of this administration, but the Democrats' 'lack of support':

"What has poisoned the perception of the U.S. abroad is not the actions of GWB, but that of the Democrats and the media who noised abroad their disdain and lack of support for Dubya, all for political gain. Had the Democrats and media done what was right, the U.S. would be in different odor around the globe."

Joementum!

I fucking love Joe Biden.

Family Reunion in Kennebunkport: Cancelled

Cousin Georgie gets the big, public diss by his chubby cousins on their poorly designed web site.

Oh High Oh

Good news on Ohio. I think. Bush ahead in some polls, Kerry ahead in others. But the genius at Mystery Pollster (full disclosure: he's a Democrat) has this to say as a summation:

"Main point: you are watching the underlying principles of the Incumbent Rule in action. With Bush at roughly 47%, the race in Ohio is close. If the President's support remains at this level, he is likely headed for an Ohio defeat. "

Plagiarism!

Check out Noam Scheiber's post today on The New Republic. Sound familiar? A-Man deserves some royalites.

And down the stretch they come...

With the debates over and no October surprise (yet), it looks like the candidates will have to rely on good ol' fashion advertising to swing the remaining votes their way. Which makes me worry. Because, while the Democratic spot is moving, this Republican ad is scary good. It's also going to be spread far and wide in the swing states ($14 million dollar ad buy).
(From The Note).

The Choice

This PBS Frontline documentary, The Choice, was really well done. It juxtaposes Bush and Kerry at similar points in their lives, with extensive footage and interviews throughout. The best part was seeing a shaggy John Kerry verbally molest a skinny John O'Neill of the Swift Boat Vets a 1971 interview show. No wonder this dude is waging this blood war on Kerry -- broseph got clowned, yo.

But the clarity of his Senate speech prior to the Iraq war impressed me, too. Perhaps even I was affected by the flip-flop tag:

"Let me be clear. The vote that I will give the President is for one reason and one reason only: to disarm Iraq of Weapons of Mass Destruction if we cannot accomplish that objective through new, tough weapons inspections in joint concert with our allies."

Battleground Rundown

This is encouraging news (Kerry 284, Bush 247).

Florida: Kerry +1 (27 EV)
Ohio: Bush +3 (20 EV)
Pennsylvania: Kerry +6 (21 EV)
Wisconsin: Kerry +1 (10 EV)
Minnesota: Kerry +2 (10 EV)
Iowa: Tied (7 EV)
Missouri: Bush +2 (11 EV)
Virginia: Bush +3 (13 EV)
North Carolina: Bush +3 (15 EV)
New Mexico: Bush +1 (5 EV)
Colorado: Bush +6 (9 EV)
Maine: Kerry +2 (4 EV)

Also, Kerry has a decisive lead in New Jersey (+13%). Yet, Bush visited there yesterday to deliver one of his "important speeches." Can someone please tell me why Rove does this stuff? You'd think he'd have learned after deciding to send Bush to California last year nearly lost him the election in Florida. Or is he beyond reproach?

The Dirty Dirty

Remember that controversy about the GOP sending fearmail warning that the Bible would be banned if Kerry was elected? I think I chalked it up to typical Rove bullshit, but check out the actual copy of the mailer. Silly Southerners.

Battle of the Little Men

This (transcript) or this (video) is a must-read/see.

Jon Stewart makes fun of Tucker Carlson's bowtie, calls his show stupid, then tells him he's "a dick."

Meet the Press

Anyone see Meet the Press today? My God, Mehlman and Shrum are two of the ugliest men I've ever seen. C'mon, I'm eating breakfast here.

Also, who's the asshole who keeps on scheduling this debate series? There's 16 Goddamn days left in the most compelling election of our lifetime, and you're showing me a debate between two douchebags from South Carolina? (On a side note, who would have thought that a woman named Tannenbaum would have a shot in South Carolina? Whattacountry!) Anyway, more David Broder, less debate series. Thank you.

"I hear there's rumors on the..."

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