Hold, please, while I slip on the rose-colored glasses...

Obviously, my objectivity is very questionable at this point. I'm clearly seeking information that will provide a reason to believe Kerry will be elected on November 2nd. That being said, I've done an admirable job of convincing myself. Despite the national polls showing Bush with a slight lead, I believe Kerry will win convincingly, both in the popular vote (+3-4%) and in the electoral college (+20-30). The main reasons will be undecideds moving towards Kerry and turnout, particularly among the youth and minority voters:

• This Pew study lends credence to the "incumbent rule," as undecided voters are starting to break more towards Kerry (27% to 22%).
• This analysis shows a 3.5% Kerry advantage in the battleground states when the data is weighted to 2000 minority voting results and a 5.2% Kerry lead when weighted to reflect the most recent Census information.
• This Seattle Post national survey of college students indicates that 87% are registered (with 84% "definitely voting"), 87% believe politics are relevant to them (up 20% since 2000), and a 52% to 39% preference for Kerry.
• Despite what our friends at the National Review may think, this article outlines the "intensity gap"among Bush and Kerry supporters, and shows Kerry supporters are 15% more likely to believe this election is either the most important of their lifetime or more important than most.

Add it all up and I wouldn't be surprised if turnout reaches 60% on Tuesday. If that happens, it'll be a Kerry cakewalk.